DETERMINASI INFLASI, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN MASYARAKAT DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

Abstract

The uneven impact of macroeconomic growth on the fulfillment of a decent standard of living for the population is the background of this research activity. These operational issues trigger fluctuations in household purchasing power and periodically suppress the level of regional financial stability. The main focus of this scientific study is to analyze the determination of inflation, the open unemployment rate, and the human development index on the escalation of community welfare in East Java Province. The steps of this associative descriptive quantitative research are operated through the utilization of secondary data in the form of annual time series from the period 2010 to 2024. The secondary information processing procedure is executed using a multiple linear regression method based on classical assumption testing with the assistance of SPSS computer software. The quantitative data from the empirical test reveals a significant negative effect of inflation on average per capita expenditure with a t-value of -2.481. Meanwhile, the open unemployment rate shows an insignificant negative effect of -0.417, and the human development index records the most significant dominant positive contribution reaching a t-value of 22.561. The results of the simultaneous analysis produce an adjusted R-square value of 0.969. The main conclusion confirms that the integration of improving human resource quality and price stability has proven highly effective in boosting social welfare. Regional governments are recommended to draft sustainable investment policies in the education and public health sectors.

ABSTRAK

Ketidakmerataan dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi makro terhadap pemenuhan standar hidup layak penduduk melatarbelakangi kegiatan penelitian ini. Masalah operasional tersebut memicu fluktuasi daya beli rumah tangga dan menekan tingkat stabilitas finansial regional secara berkala. Fokus utama kajian ilmiah ini adalah menganalisis determinasi inflasi, tingkat pengangguran terbuka, dan indeks pembangunan manusia terhadap eskalasi kesejahteraan masyarakat di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Langkah-langkah penelitian kuantitatif deskriptif asosiatif ini dioperasikan melalui pemanfaatan data sekunder berbentuk time series tahunan dari periode 2010 hingga 2024. Prosedur pengolahan informasi sekunder dieksekusi menggunakan metode regresi linier berganda berbasis pengujian asumsi klasik lewat bantuan perangkat lunak komputer SPSS. Data kuantitatif hasil pengujian secara empiris menyingkap pengaruh inflasi bernilai negatif signifikan terhadap rata-rata pengeluaran per kapita dengan nilai t-hitung -2,481. Sementara itu, tingkat pengangguran terbuka menunjukkan pengaruh negatif tidak signifikan senilai -0,417, dan indeks pembangunan manusia mencatatkan kontribusi positif dominan paling signifikan mencapai t-hitung 22,561. Hasil analisis simultan menghasilkan nilai adjusted R-square sebesar 0,969. Simpulan utama menegaskan bahwa keterpaduan peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia dan stabilitas harga terbukti sangat andal mendongkrak kesejahteraan sosial. Pemerintah daerah direkomendasikan merancang draf kebijakan investasi sektor pendidikan dan kesehatan masyarakat secara berkelanjutan.