FREE CASH FLOW, KINERJA KEUANGAN, DAN NILAI PERUSAHAAN: PERAN MEDIASI KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI DAN KEBIJAKAN DIVIDEN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51878/academia.v6i4.12949Keywords:
free cash flow, kinerja keuangan, keputusan investasi, kebijakan dividen, nilai perusahaanAbstract
Firm value in the energy sector has experienced substantial fluctuations and disparities amid varying levels of corporate cash flow and profitability. This condition is reflected in the predominance of negative free cash flow (FCF), accounting for 65.63% of observations, while 17.71% of observations still recorded dividend payments exceeding net income. This phenomenon indicates a complex mechanism linking internal financial conditions, investment decisions, dividend policy, and firm value. This study aims to examine the effects of FCF and financial performance on firm value, both directly and indirectly through investment decisions and dividend policy. A quantitative causal research design based on panel data was employed using 12 energy sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2018–2024, comprising 84 firm-year observations. The data were analyzed using panel data regression and Hayes' PROCESS Macro with 5,000 bootstrap samples. The results show that FCF has a significant negative effect on investment decisions and a negative effect on firm value at the 10% significance level. Financial performance has significant positive effects on investment decisions and dividend policy but does not directly affect firm value. Investment decisions do not mediate the effects of FCF or financial performance on firm value. In contrast, dividend policy partially mediates the effect of financial performance on firm value through a negative indirect effect. These findings highlight the importance of balancing dividend distribution with the reinvestment needs of energy companies.
ABSTRAK
Nilai perusahaan sektor energi mengalami fluktuasi dan disparitas yang tinggi di tengah kondisi arus kas dan profitabilitas perusahaan yang beragam. Kondisi tersebut terlihat dari dominannya free cash flow (FCF) negatif sebesar 65,63% observasi, sementara 17,71% observasi tetap membayarkan dividen melebihi laba bersih. Fenomena ini menunjukkan adanya mekanisme yang kompleks antara kondisi keuangan internal, keputusan investasi, kebijakan dividen, dan nilai perusahaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh FCF dan kinerja keuangan terhadap nilai perusahaan, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung melalui keputusan investasi dan kebijakan dividen. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan desain kausal berbasis data panel pada 12 perusahaan sektor energi yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2018–2024, dengan 84 observasi firm-year. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi data panel dan PROCESS Macro Hayes dengan 5.000 bootstrap. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa FCF berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap keputusan investasi dan negatif terhadap nilai perusahaan pada tingkat signifikansi 10%. Kinerja keuangan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap keputusan investasi dan kebijakan dividen, tetapi tidak berpengaruh langsung terhadap nilai perusahaan. Keputusan investasi tidak memediasi hubungan FCF maupun kinerja keuangan dengan nilai perusahaan. Sebaliknya, kebijakan dividen memediasi secara parsial pengaruh kinerja keuangan terhadap nilai perusahaan dengan efek tidak langsung negatif. Temuan ini menunjukkan pentingnya keseimbangan antara distribusi dividen dan kebutuhan reinvestasi perusahaan energi.
Downloads
References
Abbas, M. A. Y., Setyadi, D., Paminto, A., & Azis, M. (2023). The antecedents of financial performance and their implications for firm value in mining sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Law and Sustainable Development, 11(9), e991. https://doi.org/10.55908/sdgs.v11i9.991
Akhmadi, A., & Januarsi, Y. (2021). Profitability and firm value: Does dividend policy matter for Indonesian Sustainable and Responsible Investment (SRI)-KEHATI listed firms? Economies, 9(4), 163. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040163
Aprilia, N., & Wahjudi, E. (2021). Pengaruh kinerja keuangan terhadap nilai perusahaan dengan variabel moderasi corporate governance. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 9(3), 525–534. https://doi.org/10.17509/jrak.v9i3.32512
Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric analysis of panel data. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5
Bank Indonesia. (2021). Laporan perekonomian Indonesia 2021. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Pages/LPI_2021.aspx
Boussenna, H., & Kimouche, B. (2024). Impact of governance mechanisms on agency costs in CAC 40 listed firms: An empirical analysis (2005–2023). Journal of Corporate Governance, Insurance, and Risk Management, 11(1), 58–74. https://doi.org/10.56578/jcgirm110104
Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2018). Fundamentals of financial management. Cengage Learning.
Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., & Anderson, R. E. (2019). Multivariate data analysis (8th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Handayani, N., Asyikin, J., Ernawati, S., & Boedi, S. (2023). Analisis pengaruh kinerja keuangan terhadap nilai perusahaan perbankan Indonesia. KINERJA: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen, 20(2), 233–242. https://doi.org/10.30872/jkin.v20i2.13024
Hayes, A. F. (2022). Introduction to mediation, moderation, and conditional process analysis: A regression-based approach (3rd ed.). The Guilford Press.
Heliani, H., Yulianti, R., & Hermawan, I. (2022). Pengaruh net profit margin, current ratio, debt to equity ratio, free cash flow dan firm size terhadap kebijakan dividen. Universitas Bina Sarana Informatika.
Hidayati, D., & Meidiaswati, H. (2024). Pengaruh intensitas R&D, keputusan investasi, keputusan pendanaan dan kebijakan dividen terhadap nilai perusahaan manufaktur. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 12(3), 622–635. https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v12n3.p622-635
Hsiao, C. (2022). Analysis of panel data (4th ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009060653
International Energy Agency. (2021). Global energy review 2021. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2021
International Energy Agency. (2023). World energy investment 2023. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2023
Jessica, R. R. (2021). Pengaruh leverage, ukuran perusahaan, likuiditas, kebijakan dividen & pertumbuhan perusahaan terhadap nilai perusahaan. Jurnal Paradigma Akuntansi, 3(1), 366. https://doi.org/10.24912/jpa.v3i1.11662
Juswandi, R., & Delvianti. (2024). Pengaruh keputusan investasi dan keputusan pendanaan terhadap nilai perusahaan pada perusahaan tambang yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Journal of Global Economic Research, 1(1), 32–47. https://doi.org/10.62194/14d7mz12
Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral. (2019). Rencana umum ketenagalistrikan nasional 2019–2038. https://www.esdm.go.id/id/media-center/arsip-berita/rencana-umum-ketenagalistrikan-nasional
Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral. (2025). Rencana strategis Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral 2025–2029. https://www.esdm.go.id/id/publikasi/rencana-strategis
Liang, S., Niu, Y., Yang, D., & Liu, X. (2023). Dividend payouts under a societal crisis: Financial constraints or signaling? International Review of Financial Analysis, 88, 102705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102705
Liu, Y.-Y., & Lee, P.-S. (2022). Market responses to cash dividends distributed from capital reserves. Finance Research Letters, 46, 102389. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102389
Masri, A. P., Dunakhir, S., & Anwar, A. (2025). Pengaruh free cash flow (FCF) terhadap kinerja keuangan pada perusahaan sektor barang konsumsi non-primer yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Almufi Jurnal Sosial dan Humaniora, 2(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.63821/ash.v2i1.416
Meutia, R., Apridar, Mursidah, Mastuti, R., & Fuad, M. (2021). Investment decisions, financing and dividends to increase firm value: A case study of manufacturing companies in Indonesia. Economic Annals-XXI, 194(11–12), 67–72. https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V194-08
Mirrad, A., Tarmedi, E., & Mayasari, M. (2020). Pengukuran nilai perusahaan dengan variabel keputusan investasi pada perusahaan property dan real estate. Strategic: Jurnal Pendidikan Manajemen Bisnis, 20(1), 60–72. https://ejournal.upi.edu/index.php/strategic/article/viewFile/29148/13062
Naranjo, P., Saavedra, D., & Verdi, R. S. (2022). The pecking order and financing decisions: Evidence from changes to financial-reporting regulation. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 37(4), 727–750. https://doi.org/10.1177/0148558X20945066
Naulita, R., & Rosdiana, R. (2023). Pengaruh profitabilitas, solvabilitas, dan likuiditas terhadap nilai perusahaan (Studi kasus pada perusahaan sektor property dan real estate yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2016–2020). Journal of Fundamental Management, 3(1), 119–129. https://publikasi.mercubuana.ac.id/index.php/jfm/article/view/20218
Pramanda, F. R., & Indriani, A. (2021). Analisis pengaruh free cash flow, growth, market to book value, profitability, dan leverage terhadap dividend payout ratio (Studi pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2016–2018). Diponegoro Journal of Management, 10(2), 1–12. https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/djom/article/view/30970/0
Pratiwi, R., & Susilowati, S. (2024). Pengaruh kebijakan dividen, keputusan investasi dan profitabilitas terhadap nilai perusahaan pada perusahaan sektor industri barang dan konsumsi yang terdaftar di BEI. Soetomo Accounting Review, 2(3), 327–341. https://doi.org/10.25139/sacr.v2i3.8252
Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R. W., Jaffe, J. F., & Driss, H. (2019). Corporate finance.
Siahaan, M. (2022). Buku ajar pengantar manajemen keuangan. CV. Pena Persada.
Simangunsong, R. R. (2024). Pengaruh kebijakan utang, kebijakan dividen, dan profitabilitas terhadap nilai perusahaan. Jurnal Arastirma, 4(1), 177–189. https://doi.org/10.32493/arastirma.v4i1.37303
Sudarno, Renaldo, N., Hutauruk, M. B., Junaedi, A. T., & Suyono. (2022). Teori penelitian keuangan. Literasi Nusantara Abadi.
Sudiyatno, B., Puspitasari, E., Nurhayati, I., & Rijanti, T. (2021). The relationship between profitability and firm value: Evidence from manufacturing industry in Indonesia. International Journal of Financial Research, 12(3), 466. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v12n3p466
Sugiyono. (2017). Metode penelitian kuantitatif, kualitatif dan R&D. Alfabeta.
Suriawinata, I. S., Budiyani, E. T., Mais, R. G., & Anhar, M. A. (2023). Cash conversion cycle, asset turnover, capital expenditure and firm value: The mediating role of profitability. Jurnal Reviu Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 13(3), 674–695. https://doi.org/10.22219/jrak.v13i3.25161
Susanti, M., Samara, A., & Hakim, M. Z. (2022). Pengaruh earning per share (EPS), dividen payout ratio (DPR) dan return on aset (ROA) terhadap nilai perusahaan (Tobins’ Q) pada perusahaan sektor consumer non-cyclicals di Indonesia. Journal of Accounting, Finance, Taxation, and Auditing (JAFTA), 4(1), 29–55. https://journal.maranatha.edu/index.php/jafta/article/view/6473
Suteja, J., Gunardi, A., Alghifari, E. S., Susiadi, A. A., Yulianti, A. S., & Lestari, A. (2023). Investment decision and firm value: Moderating effects of corporate social responsibility and profitability of non-financial sector companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(1), 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16010040
Suwandi Ng. (2022). Nilai perusahaan: Analisis kemampuan manajerial dan struktur pengawasan. Literasi Nusantara Abadi.
Tanaya, J. C., & Wiyanto, H. (2022). Pengaruh keputusan investasi, ukuran perusahaan, dan leverage terhadap nilai perusahaan pertambangan. Jurnal Manajerial dan Kewirausahaan, 4(2), 389–398. https://doi.org/10.24912/jmk.v4i2.18237
Thian, A. (2022). Analisis laporan keuangan. ANDI.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2020). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Yuliani, Hamdan AJ., U., Fuadah, L. L., & Thamrin, K. H. (2021). Diversifikasi, investment opportunity set, dan financing mix: Strategi keuangan untuk kinerja profitabilitas perusahaan. Citrabooks.
Zakiyya, M. A. F., & Rahmanto, B. T. (2024). Pengaruh kinerja keuangan, kinerja lingkungan, dan pertumbuhan perusahaan terhadap nilai perusahaan sektor tambang tahun 2018–2022. Jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan, Perpajakan dan Tata Kelola Perusahaan, 1(4), 457–464. https://doi.org/10.59407/jakpt.v1i4.842
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Hazza Rafi Zulkarnain, Diana Hasyim
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
